Business Data Analytics & Advanced Excel · Beginner level

Beginner level · Module 5 of 5 · 10 guided hours

Business Forecasting Basics

Forecast sales and demand with simple, honest methods in Excel, and explain their uncertainty.

Learning objectives

  • Identify trends and seasonality in business data
  • Forecast with moving averages and Excel's forecasting tools
  • Present forecasts with their uncertainty

Topics

  • trend and seasonality
  • moving averages
  • FORECAST.LINEAR
  • Forecast Sheet
  • forecast error
  • presenting ranges

Lessons

  1. Lesson 1 Trends and Moving Averages

    Smooth out noise with moving averages to see the underlying trend.

    trendseasonalitynoisemoving average

  2. Lesson 2 Forecasting Tools in Excel

    Use FORECAST.LINEAR and the Forecast Sheet to project sales forward.

    FORECAST.LINEARForecast Sheetconfidence intervalseasonality setting

  3. Lesson 3 Presenting Forecasts Honestly

    Present forecasts as ranges with their assumptions, and update them as new data arrives.

    point forecast vs rangeassumptionsforecast errorreview

Practical activity

Forecast next month's sales for each branch with two methods, compare them with what actually happened in past months and present the forecast as a range.

Expected outcomes

  • Simple, defensible forecasts
  • Honest communication of uncertainty

Assessment

Forecast workbook and a short explanation marked on method and honesty about uncertainty.

Free taster lesson Business Forecasting & Data Analysis Read a free self-study lesson on this topic in the Free Course Library.

Taught live by an instructor — online or in person. Free course lessons are for self-study and do not lead to a certificate — see registration options.